I feel like I should just copy and paste “Jalen Duren and the Detroit Pistons remained locked...” to save time at this point, but unless you’ve been somewhere outside the reaches of the Internet (lucky you), you know the deal by now.
Nothing much has changed in the Duren saga other than the threat of the qualifying offer, which would be the nuclear option for Duren and really his last way to gain leverage and control over where he plays next.
But no one in Duren’s position has ever done that, as he’s eligible for a max deal so would be taking a big risk and sacrificing a lot of money next season. He’s not likely to be the first max-eligible player to take the QO, but if he does, it won’t gain him any money, and in fact, he’s far more likely to lose.
Jalen Duren’s holdout is pointless financially
There are a couple of ways Duren would benefit from the qualifying offer. The first is that he’d be an unrestricted free agent at the end of next season, and if he has a good year, it’s possible he’d get the max deal he (or his agent) thinks he deserves.
Duren would also get a no-trade clause for next season that would allow him to prevent the Pistons from shipping him off to a destination where he doesn’t want to be.
Other than that, taking the QO would be a massive risk for Duren in several ways.
If he were to get injured next season, he’d potentially lose multi-generational wealth, especially if the injury were season or career threatening.
But he’s also at risk of having a poor season. What if Duren’s regular season numbers went down (which is actually likely given additions and internal improvement)? What if he flames out in the playoffs again? In any of those scenarios, Duren’s market would be substantially lower after next season.
Even if Duren played great and there were a team out there willing to give him a four-year max deal, he’d actually end up with the same (or less) money overall if he takes the QO, as he’d be losing around $25 million next season.
And that’s in the unlikely scenario that there is a team out there willing to give him the full max, which hasn’t been the case so far. Duren would be making the ultimate bet on himself, as he’d almost have to make All-NBA again, improve his numbers and be better in the playoffs for any team to consider giving him the full max.
Duren could go through all of this ruckus that has not endeared him to some of the fanbase (I don’t hold it against him personally, it’s just business) just to end up with the exact same or even less money than he’s being offered now.
It looks even worse when a generational superstar Victor Wembanyama was willing to take less money specifically to help with team building down the road. Duren is about 10 tiers below Wemby, so this isn’t a great look for him.
Duren is out of good options at this point, but the qualifying offer is the worst one, so it's an empty threat for now, but don't expect this saga to end anytime soon.
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