After Peyton Watson finally found a new home in a sign-and-trade, his agent Rich Paul sparked a polarizing discussion about advising Watson to sit out during the Nuggets' playoff run. It's a controversial thing for an agent to admit about a young player, but Watson was admittedly dealing with a soft tissue injury and Detroit's very own Jalen Duren is living proof of how much a bad playoff run can impact a player's value heading into free agency negotiations.
Watson could have found himself in the same boat as Duren
Both Watson and Duren had some surprising offensive leaps in the regular season last year prior to a summer as a restricted free agent. That leap was much less sustained for Watson, who had a 24-game stretch averaging 19.5 points per game after a Nikola Jokic injury. Duren, on the other hand, averaged the same amount for the whole season and earned his first career All-Star and All-NBA selections.
Both players found themselves in tough negotiations this offseason because of their lack of playoff production. Watson had a hamstring injury - something we've seen derail some of the league's brightest stars - that forced him to miss 27 of the Nuggets' last 32 regular season games and all their playoff games. Duren, of course, did play through the regular season and playoffs but had a historic dropoff during the postseason.
If Watson had toughed it out and suited up for the playoffs on a bad hamstring, he could have easily had a bad run. As Paul emphasized, that risk simply was not worth it for a young player seeking his first contract extension. Instead, Watson got to enjoy the benefit of the doubt and was paid well by the Cavaliers for the promise he showed in the regular season before getting injured.
Duren's poor playoffs are costing him now
On the other hand, Duren's restricted free agency has been even more difficult because he played poorly rather than not playing at all. If Duren's 2025-26 season had ended before the playoffs, the Pistons would not hesitate to pay him a huge contract - although probably not the max that he can technically earn. Still, missing the playoffs entirely would have been much better for his brand than what he actually showed against the Magic and Cavs.
Because Duren had such a bad playoff run, the Pistons and other teams around the NBA value him much less now. He will see that loss in perception reflected immediately in his next contract, and the drop has been so steep that Detroit still hasn't signed him after months of negotiations. Even after they've made plenty of other moves to upgrade the roster, the Pistons have yet to find an agreement with their 22-year-old All-Star center.
Unfortunately for both Duren and Watson, restricted free agency gives teams a lot of leverage unless another team is willing to give up considerable assets for the player in question. Front offices today are also more keen than ever on playoff production, which is hurting Duren now and justifying Watson's decision to sit out of the Nuggets' most recent playoff series.
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