Jalen Duren has put himself in a pretty unfortunate situation this offseason not only with his exorbitant contract demands but also his poor postseason play just a few months ago. Duren had one of the worst playoff drops by an All-Star in recent memory, only comparable to Julius Randle - who has never been able to carry his impact into the postseason after a decade in the league.
Duren doesn’t want to end up in Randle’s boat
In 2021, Randle made his first All-Star appearance leading the Knicks to the playoffs as a 4th seed. However, he had a historic underperformance going from 24 points per game in the regular season to just 18 in the playoffs. He also saw a huge drop in efficiency: just 33% from the field and 28% from three in that playoff run.
Unfortunately, the story of an All-Star dropping so drastically is familiar to Pistons fans now. Duren himself went from 19.5 points per game in the regular season to 10 in the playoffs last season. His efficiency also took a huge hit, going from 65% shooting in the regular season to 51% in the playoffs.
Both playoff droppers had their tendencies exploited by their opponents. In Randle’s case, the Hawks forced him to the baseline and crowded him whenever he drove towards the middle of the floor. That adjustment has haunted Randle for his entire playoff career, limiting both his postseason success and his career earnings.
In Duren’s case, both the Magic and Cavaliers crowded him on catches out of the pick-and-roll, leading to less space in the short roll. They also scouted his patented right-to-left pickup that worked so well in the regular season. When he didn’t get the same space or go-to move as usual, Duren faltered.
Since the Hawks first exposed Randle's glaring playoff weakness 5 years ago, other opponents have also found similar ways to reduce his production in the playoffs. Naturally, this has made teams reluctant to give him full max contracts, even when he made 3 All-Star teams in 4 years with the Knicks. Time and time again, Randle has been forced to settle for less lucrative contracts because of his playoff deficiencies.
The Pistons can't afford to have Duren be in the same camp
Clearly Detroit wants different for Duren. They can't keep relying on Cade Cunningham to fix everything without a proven second option in the playoffs. Duren's playoff drop last season has driven the Pistons' hesitancy to sign him to a lucrative long-term deal, and for good reason.
Duren can make things right by coming back on a more reasonable contract, especially for less years, and playing better in the playoffs. From the Pistons' perspective, that's the most important factor in determining his long-term worth. But getting there will be harder now that two teams have exposed his weaknesses in a high-profile way.
In future playoff runs, Duren will need more counters to keep defenses honest. Whether it's adding more scoring moves to his bag or improving his playmaking, he can't be so easy to neutralize again. Otherwise, he will follow the same career trajectory as Julius Randle and find himself repeatedly disappointed throughout his career.
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