Many national outlets have the Detroit Pistons finishing with a higher seed next season than last, with the most common predictions being 4th or 5th seed in the Eastern Conference. However, these outlets also may be underestimating the Pistons’ capacity for improvement. The most recent high-profile prediction comes from Bleacher Report, who has the Pistons going 45-37 (just 1 more win than last season).
Underrating the Detroit Pistons
Writer Andy Bailey does admit that “each member of the young core…should still be improving” but does not reflect it in his predicted win total. Especially with key injuries and departures leading to depleted teams in the East next season, the Pistons’ win total can actually increase quite a bit even without major improvements from the team.
This is especially true because two of the teams hit biggest by injuries are in the Pistons’ division: the Pacers and the Bucks. With them both being in the Central division, the Pistons will get at least four games against each and hope to improve from their combined 1-7 against the two last season.
The Pacers will be without star Tyrese Haliburton for likely the entire season after an Achilles tear in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Some fans debate whether he or Pascal Siakam is truly the Pacers’ best player, but Haliburton’s absence will certainly be felt in the way that Indiana’s offense flows next season.
For the Bucks, they lost star point guard Damian Lillard to an Achilles tear in the first round of the playoffs before buying him out. In the end, their starting lineup looks a bit different from last year and is lacking in top-end talent aside from Giannis Antetokounmpo. They certainly won’t have anyone with Lillard’s combination of scoring and playmaking leading the helm from the perimeter this season.
The Pistons can also expect to see substantial internal growth from their young players. It’s probably overly optimistic to project a significant jump for each of them, but young guns Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland II can definitely take big leaps.
For Ausar, having a proper offseason and being available to start the season can pay big dividends compared to last year. He was dealing with blood clot issues in the offseason and injured/on a minutes restriction until about January. When he was playing consistently, he elevated the Pistons’ defense to one of the best in the league and continued excellence from him there will fuel the Pistons on both ends.
Ron Holland has also been working hard to take a big sophomore leap and showed his improvements in Summer League. The Pistons are hoping to see better outside shooting from him and possibly more time spent at the power forward position too.
Between expected growth from the young core (and not even considering the return of Jaden Ivey) and a weakening of the East, I have the Pistons projected closer to 50 wins. The most likely outcome is probably around 48 wins, but suggesting they will only improve marginally from last year is surely underestimating them.