Malik Beasley’s absence from the Pistons roster next season was certainly an unexpected development in the offseason. The team was reportedly ready to offer him a 3-year deal after his historic shooting last season, when he set an NBA record for 3s off the bench in a season, before reports about a gambling probe came out just before free agency started. The Pistons had to pivot quickly, but may have found the perfect replacement when it comes to drawing the attention of a defense.
Duncan Robinson and Malik Beasley are similar in one key metric
The Pistons ended up acquiring Duncan Robinson in a sign-and-trade to fill the sharp shooting void. When it comes to movement shooters like Beasley and Robinson, their impact goes far beyond the stat sheet. As Brad Stevens once said of famed sharpshooter Kyle Korver, “You have to treat him like he averages 30 or else it could be 30.” The true impact of these guys is felt in how they bend defenses even when they’re not scoring or even touching the ball.
One advanced metric to track this information is closeout speed of defenders. The shooters who are perceived as the biggest threats will force defenders to run out faster whenever they catch the ball. It can also generally be a good proxy for how much attention defenses are giving a particular player.
Last season, Malik Beasley was predictably towards the top of the league in this metric. An adjusted version of the stat posted by Sportradar placed Beasley at 3rd in the league on defender closeout speed, with the highest volume of closeouts. 5th on that list, with nearly the same closeout speed, was Duncan Robinson.
For the majority of both their careers, Beasley and Robinson have averaged around 11-13 points per game. Last season, Beasley was able to ramp that up to 16 a game on the back of some truly exceptional volume and efficiency. Beasley’s overall shooting last season has only been matched by a select few individuals in NBA history - we’re talking Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Anthony Edwards only.
It was likely that Beasley’s shooting would regress a bit this season regardless, but he could retain a lot of his positive offensive impact without actually having to make 300 threes on 41percent shooting. While it’s unlikely Duncan Robinson can reach those shooting numbers, he can definitely approximate the impact by drawing defenders’ attention and leveraging the threat of his shooting to create easy opportunities for his teammates.