Jalen Duren has proven that he is not a max player during the playoffs. At the same time, the Detroit Pistons may have to pay him the max to ensure they keep him.
The dissonance between those two statements signals the cliff of disaster the Pistons are now barrelling toward, and if Detroit is forced to pay a max contract to a non-max player, the results could be disastrous.
Jalen Duren is playing terribly
If anyone knows what happened to the Monstar who stole Jalen Duren's basketball powers, please give J.B. Bickerstaff a call. The Pistons' starting center has completely fallen apart in the playoffs, a shocking result for a player who dominated the regular season and earned his first All-Star selection.
In the regular season, Duren was a two-way force in the middle for a Pistons team that shocked everyone and won 60 games, the most in the Eastern Conference. He averaged 19.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and two assists per game, alternating from elite finisher playing next to Cade Cunningham to creating offense himself when Cunningham missed time. It was a truly impressive breakout campaign.
Was it fool's gold? Duren's career-high in scoring prior to the season was 13.8 points, and there were no shortage of cupcake opponents in this year of the tanking team. Did Duren's breakout mask the reality that he wasn't as good as his numbers suggested?
That is a possibility on the table, because Duren has fallen apart in the playoffs. In 13 games, he is averaging only 10.5 points and 8.5 rebounds, taking four fewer shots per game. While he has had a couple of games that look like the new Duren, they have been spread out between meek showings where he has been punked by the likes of Wendell Carter Jr. and Jarrett Allen.
Can the Pistons afford to pay Duren the max?
This is relevant not only for the Pistons' chances of winning in the playoffs this year, but also for their long-term future. The Pistons and Duren were unable to agree on a contract extension last summer, a reality that seemed to work in Duren's favor based on his breakout season.
If Duren is named to an All-NBA team, which he is expected to be, he will be eligible for a five-year contract worth just under $300 million. Even at the lower 25 percent max he is already eligible for, a five-year max would clock in around $240.
The Pistons are trying to build something great in Detroit. Ausar Thompson is perhaps the best perimeter defender in the NBA and is up for an extension this summer. This team desperately needs another creator. They need shooting. They need depth.
Paying Duren the max would seem out of the question -- except for the fact that if they don't, he might be gone for nothing.
Pistons might be forced into an overpay
Never mind that Duren will ask for the max, he might have an avenue to signing one. He will be a restricted free agent, which means that the Pistons can match any contract he signs with another team.
ESPN reported this week that multiple teams with cap space, including the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets, could sign Duren to a max contract offer sheet given the possibility that the Pistons wouldn't match.
What would Detroit do in such a scenario? Let their All-NBA center walk away for nothing? That seems unthinkable. If the other option is matching and paying him a max, is that truly a better path?
It seems impossible to watch the 2026 playoffs and conclude that Jalen Duren is a player worth even $40 million a year. That's where his 25 percent max starts; he would make $54 million in the final season. His supermax would go up to $65 million in the final year.
Such a gargantuan payout would hamstring the Pistons' ability to win a championship, without question. Cade Cunningham might be good enough to lead a team to the title, but he can't do it with an overpaid center who is going to wilt in the playoffs and a collection of riff-raff because the team cannot afford anyone else.
The Pistons could be forced into a disastrous contract decision this summer, but it may also be the lesser of two evils. This year should be an exciting step forward on a path toward true title contention. Instead, it could be the high mark, and the future could turn bleak quickly.
And Jalen Duren could be at the center of both the rise and the fall.
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