Roughly five months after he last played an NBA game, the Detroit Pistons must decide if and how it should structure a contract extension for Jaden Ivey. It's a decision that once seemed simple enough to make, but nearly half a year removed from his most recent appearance, the matter has been complicated.
Detroit must now decide how committed it is to Ivey before he plays another game—firmly acknowledging the risks along the way.
Ivey, 23, took a monumental step forward during the 2024-25 regular season. He averaged 17.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 0.9 steals, and 2.1 three-point field goals made on .460/.409/.733 shooting in just 29.9 minutes per game.
Unfortunately, Ivey suffered a broken left fibula on Jan. 1 and thus missed the remainder of the 2024-25 season—including the playoffs.
The question the Pistons are now faced with is how much stock they plan to put in the 30 games during which he was healthy in 2024-25. Ivey's young and undeniably talented, but he'd also previously struggled with efficiency before producing a limited sample size of sharpshooting proficiency.
Unfortunately for the Pistons, the time to decide whether or not they plan to extend Ivey is running out—and either outcome would carry significant risk.
Pistons must decide if it's going to extend Jaden Ivey
Ivey is signed through the 2025-26 season at a rookie-scale figure of $10,107,163. In the event that Ivey and the Pistons fail to come to terms on a contract extension, he'll be eligible for restricted free agency during the 2026 offseason.
That certainly buys Detroit time to make a decision, but the difference between signing Ivey to an extension now and having to match an offer sheet in 2026 could prove significant.
For Ivey, that knowledge will likely influence his decision-making when it comes to accepting or declining a potential extension offer. If he can remain healthy and continues to improve his production and general quality, then he could be in store for a much larger contract in 2026.
Considering he appeared in 151 of the Pistons' 162 games between 2022-23 and 2023-24, it's fair to believe that Ivey's confidence in his health and availability would be well-founded.
Detroit, meanwhile, would be gambling regardless of what transpires. It's equally as likely that it would be paying less for Ivey in 2025 than it would need to in 2026 as it is that it could sign him long-term and find an inadequate return on the investment.
The question thus becomes: How confident is Detroit that it can sign Ivey to an extension comparable to some of his peers with similar histories?
Pistons must gauge market to determine next step
Moses Moody signed a three-year, $37.5 million contract extension with the Golden State Warriors after appearing in 181 games through three seasons—the same number that Ivey has played. The difference, however, is that Moody averaged no more than 17.0 minutes per game in any of those campaigns, while Ivey has bottomed out at 28.8.
On the opposite end of the short-term-extension spectrum, Jalen Green inked a three-year, $105.3 million extension with the Houston Rockets.
Odds are, Ivey's extension would fall somewhere in between those two figures. Green had his own issues with inefficiency, and his averages through three seasons of 19.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 2.4 three-point field goals made are remarkably similar to Ivey's 2024-25 marks.
The two key differences between Green and Ivey, however, are simple: Green is Houston's go-to perimeter scorer and played 82 games the season before signing an extension.
Placing Ivey somewhere in between Moody's $12.5 million and Green's $35.1 million per season offers some level of intrigue. Even if one were to split the difference and put him at $23.7 million per year, however, one can't help but feel as though the risk would be significant based on sample size of efficient production alone.
Ivey may very well be the player who gets the Pistons over the hump and into the second round of the playoffs, but with Cade Cunningham emerging as an All-NBA player, every penny spent will matter.
Pistons would be wise to proceed with caution
The upside of a backcourt that features Cunningham and Ivey is unavoidable. Cunningham is fresh off of an All-NBA Third Team campaign, while Ivey was trending upward with a season that would've certainly put him on the radar for future All-Star consideration.
Ivey scored at least 20 points in 10 of his 30 appearances in 2024-25, torching postseason-caliber opponents such as the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Indiana Pacers.
Furthermore, Ivey shot 45.2 percent on catch-and-shoot threes. That number may be unsustainable, but it's worth noting that he shot 37.4 percent on said shots in 2022-23 and 35.5 percent in 2023-24, thus suggesting that he's a reliable off-ball shooter.
Questions persist, however, about how well they fit alongside one another, especially when one considers that Detroit was outscored by 4.2 points per 100 possessions when they shared the court.
Ivey is still a young player learning how he fits in the NBA as a whole and, on a smaller but equally as significant level, Detroit's rotation. The patience displayed with his development, however, may need to be mirrored by caution in potential extension negotiations if the Pistons hope to avoid an overpay.
With ample reason to both extend and evade an extension offer, the Pistons have found themselves staring down a impossible decision that will decide their and Ivey's future.