Marc Stein of The Stein Line reported on Thursday that Detroit Pistons Jalen Duren is prepared to accept (subscription required) his $9.6 million qualifying offer if things come to that.
One source briefed on the process says Duren is increasingly prepared to play out the coming season on his $9.6 million qualifying offer — with the intent to become an unrestricted free agent next summer — if no deal with Detroit materializes by the end of September.
While that would be a tough blow for Detroit, it could end up being even worse for Duren, as there's no guarantee that the money he is looking for will still be on the table next summer, when he'd hit unrestricted free agency.
Yes, we know the Kings hope he'll hit free agency, and even teams like the Clippers could join the pursuit, but there's a lot that could change between now and next June. Duren would be taking a massive risk by betting on himself, even more so than other restricted free agents who have done so in the past.
Jalen Duren would be turning down a lot of money
Tim MacMahon reported at the beginning of the month that Detroit offered a five-year deal that's in the "range" of $35 million annually, but Duren's camp is pushing for more than $40 million annually. If the center chooses to play out the season on his qualifying offer, he'd be turning down around $170 million, believing he'll make more than that next summer.
Several things could happen during the season that would derail Duren's hopes of setting himself up for more money as an unrestricted free agent. He's been pretty durable for the first four years of his career, averaging 69 games per season, but if he were to suffer an injury, his next contract could take a hit.
He averaged a career-high 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds last season, shooting 65% from the field, but if Duren's production dipped, teams that have cap space would think twice about throwing a bag at him. That'd also be the case if he had another underwhelming playoff performance where he became unplayable.
Duren could burn himself more than the Pistons
It certainly wouldn't be ideal for Detroit if Duren accepted his qualifying offer, as it'd set him up to walk next summer, when he would have more of a say in his future. The Pistons could be left with nothing in return for the player selected No. 13 overall in the 2023 draft. You can't spin that as a positive.
But Duren could be worse off if he bets on himself and it doesn't pay off. Teams are more reluctant to spend big on free agents because of the financial restrictions in the collective bargaining agreement, which could put him in an even worse situation next offseason if he thinks he'll get a maximum contract.
The Pistons don't need to cough up the money that Duren thinks he deserves, as they have more leverage. You didn't see other teams lining up to pay him what he wanted this summer, which is a big part of why things have dragged on so long.
He thinks he's worth more than Detroit has offered, but no other team is competing with the Pistons in negotiations.
Hopefully, both sides can reach a new deal before training camp, but if Duren's camp refuses to compromise, Detroit can't cave to his demands. It won't be long before we learn whether the center is bluffing about taking the qualifying offer. If he does, there is a higher chance he'll regret it.
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