The Detroit Pistons acquired Duncan Robinson in a sign-and-trade with the Heat, giving the guard a three-year, $48 million contract. NBA fans immediately wondered why Detroit was giving Robinson that kind of money, but the second year of his contract is partially guaranteed, and the third year is non-guaranteed. Ah, much better. But there are still reasons to worry about Robinson.
He is the Pistons' best three-point shooter, shooting 39.7% from deep on 7.2 attempts in the seven seasons he spent in Miami. Having his floor spacing is a huge bonus, especially after losing Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr., but outside of that, Robinson will be a non-factor.
The signing will be a quick win for the Pistons if they use the $16.8 million he'll make next season in a pre-deadline trade for a star-level player. That will depend on who is available and where Detroit is at.
If the Pistons have the season they envision after finishing with the sixth-best record in 2024-25, they won't need to make a big-ish splash at the deadline. They can make minor improvements around the margins, but if the right player is out there, and the time is right, Robinson could spend less than a full season in Michigan.
How will Duncan Robinson acquisition fare for the Pistons?
Except for two of the seven seasons he spent with the Heat, Robinson averaged double-digit points. He averaged 11 points per game this past season, shooting 43.7% from the field and 39.3% from three in 74 games (37 starts).
Like every other shooter, there are times when Robinson's shot is falling, and others when it isn't. He can get hot easily, but when he's not, the only value he'll give is that opposing defenses won't be able to leave him wide open.
One of the main concerns about Robinson is his age and injury history with his back. He turned 31 earlier this year, so if he stays in Detroit for three seasons, he'll be 34. It's not reassuring that his best two seasons in the league happened in his first two seasons in Miami, when he averaged a career-high 13.5 points per game in 2019-20 and 13.1 points per game in 2020-21.
The Pistons know what kind of player they got in Robinson, which is both a good and bad thing. It could easily be a decision that they regret a few months into the season, but hopefully, that won't be the case.