Best case/worst case scenario for likely top Pistons draft picks

Matas Buzelis, 6’10 SF

Matas is someone who I have been coming around more on after his season had ended. For the last few years, Matas was often considered the expected number one over selection thanks to his size and ability to space the floor. In high school, the 6-foot-10 wing averaged 16 points, 6 rebounds and almost 2 stocks per game all while shooting 43 perent from deep. This puts his ceiling very similar to that of Zaccharie Risacher, yet even higher in my opinion thanks to his on-ball abilities. He has fantastic length and can play both in the perimeter or beyond it. As mentioned with Risacher, a long wing who can be lethal from three is extremely coveted and Matas would give Detroit exactly that at the four spot. He would take some offensive pressure off Duren or Ausar, and be a long term piece next to Cade and Ivey. 

The former 5-star didn’t play college ball, deciding to take the G-League route and play for the Ignite, a decision that may wound up being detrimental to his draft position. His floor is actually quite similar to the year he had this past season with the now defunct Ignite. You can point his struggles to the G-League and it’s issues, but Matas saw his three point percentage drop from 43 percent all the way down to just 27 percent. Additionally, his free throw percentage sits at just 68 percent, which isn’t promising. Outside of his perimeter efficiency, Matas still had a decently productive year, proving that his floor is still decently high. He finished his season in the G-League putting up 14 points, 7 rebounds and 3 stocks, which is good, but not having a three point shot would allow defenses to leave the perimeter and further crowd the paint. 

Detroit cannot afford to have another non-shooter in the lineup, if Buzelis ends up more like his floor. I don't, however, think his shooting will be as bad as it was for the Ignite. They had terrible developmental issues, which led them to shutting the team down, and I think Matas regressed due to this. As mentioned, his base numbers outside of perimeter shooting are still decent, and he is still 6-foot-10. I think he has one of the biggest upside in this draft and I believe he falls almost at his ceiling.