The Detroit Pistons have climbed out of the cellar of the Eastern Conference and are now a full game ahead of the hopeless Wizards in the battle for the worst record in the league.
Even after winning 3-of-4 games, the Pistons are likely to end up in the bottom three, which would give them a maximum 14 percent odds for the #1 pick, though no one has any clue who that is going to be.
This was a season when we hoped the Pistons would fight for a play-in spot instead of lottery position, but they have already been eliminated so there isn't much else to look forward to but more ping-pong balls and hopefully a few weeks of growth as the 2023-24 season winds down.
When is the NBA Draft Lottery?
The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery will be held in Chicago on May 12th and it will decide picks 1-14 in the NBA Draft.
The Pistons do still owe a pick to the New York Knicks, but it won't convey this season as it will fall well outside of the protections.
Detroit Pistons draft history
The Pistons' recent draft history has mostly been good, as they have taken Killian Hayes, Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson with their last five lottery picks.
Things didn't work out with Killian Hayes, who has joined a dubious list of draft misses, but the Pistons look to have the cornerstones of their team with the other four.
There are still questions about their long-term fit, but even if the Pistons had to trade one of them, they have solid young talent moving forward.
Detroit Pistons current lottery odds
Here are the Pistons' odds for each of the picks based on their current position in the standings as the second-worst team in the NBA.
1st: 14%
2nd: 13.4%
3rd: 12.7%
4th: 12%
5th: 27.8%
6th: 20%
As you can see, the Pistons have a much higher chance of landing the 5th pick than they do the first and have just a 40.1 percent chance of getting a top-three pick and a 59.8 percent chance of a pick in the 4-6 range.
The only difference between being the second-worst team and the worst overall is that you can drop to 6th instead of a guaranteed top-5 pick.
It may not matter as much this year, as there is no consensus on the top-5 and the best player may well fall outside of it.