After watching the Detroit Pistons be the worst team in the NBA over the last five seasons, it’s hard to know what to expect in the next one.
The Homer in me wants to think the Pistons did enough this offseason to at least improve and added players who better complement the young core, which will speed up their development.
The realist looks at this team and sees more of the same: they are too young, not a great fit, with over-the-hill veterans who won’t be with the team the whole season. Rinse and repeat.
It wouldn’t take much to satisfy impatient fans, who just want a team worth cheering for, one that is trying to win and not just push the “wait until next year” mantra in perpetuity.
The “dream” season is in reach, but after watching the Pistons repeated failures, it’s easy to see a more likely reality.
Detroit Pistons’ dream season vs. the ugly truth
The Dream: The Pistons are better than expected
I don’t think it’s completely insane to think the Pistons could be better than most predictions. If everything broke right for them, the additions of Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr. and a full season of Simone Fontecchio could propel the Pistons forward much like veteran offseason additions did for Houston last year.
The Pistons aren’t likely to win 41 games like the Rockets did, but could fall somewhere in between Houston and Utah in the 30-35 win range, which would be a victory for a young team on the rise.
The Reality: The Detroit Pistons win 25 games
Most publications have the Pistons winning somewhere between 25-27 games next season, which would be an improvement but not one fans are going to be too excited about.
Let’s face it, even winning 25 games would be an 11-game improvement and the best record the team has had in six seasons. It’s more likely we get baby steps instead of leaps in Trajan Langdon’s first season as team president.
Another season of a win total in the 20’s is not what fans are looking for, but it’s likely what they are going to get unless everything goes right.
So, what does that look like?
The Dream: All of the young players make marked improvement
For the first dream to come true, it will take clear improvement from all of the Pistons’ young players, including Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren and even Ron Holland II.
In this situation, Cunningham becomes an All-Star with better spacing around him, Thompson improves as a shooter and playmaker while continuing to be lockdown on defense. Jaden Ivey starts knocking down 3-point shots more consistently and develops a go-to shot around the rim while getting more comfortable defensively and Jalen Duren becomes a better defender who blocks a couple of shots per game.
The Reality: One of these players makes a leap
It’s unlikely that all of the Pistons’ young players improve at the same time and they may not all be given the same chances to do so. I’d put my money on Ausar Thompson, who already affects the game in myriad ways and is a more efficient offensive game away from being a star.
I’d bet on Duren making a small leap defensively, as big men tend to take longer to develop on defense. It’s hard for me to envision a scenario in which Jaden Ivey doesn’t stagnate a bit, at least early on. He’s going to have competition for minutes and may not even start right away. If the Pistons are playing well with shooters around Cade, Ivey could be relegated to a bench role.
Development is not linear, and while I do think all of these guys will at least be productive rotation players in the NBA, it’s not likely for it all to happen in one offseason.
But what if it does?
The Dream: The young players outperform their veteran counterparts
It would be nice if the Pistons’ “high upside” young players could outplay veterans who are in the latter stages of their careers.
That means Jaden Ivey making it impossible Malik Beasley to get into the starting five, for the Pistons to not need Tim Hardaway Jr. because all of their young guards and wings are playing so well, for someone to at least challenge Tobias Harris for minutes.
The Reality: JB Bickerstaff tries to set the tone with veterans
It’s more likely that a new coach is going to lean on his veterans a bit more early on, which means we could see one of Beasley or THJ in the starting five next to Tobias Harris, Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren.
Bickerstaff has a tough assignment trying to balance wins and player development while also prioritizing Cunningham as the guy they are building around. If he goes with what is best for Cade, that might mean more Beasley than Ivey, more THJ than Holland, more Fontecchio than Thompson.
For the first time in this “rebuild,” the young players are going to have to earn minutes over veteran competition, and if they can’t, the Pistons are in big trouble.
The Dream: Trajan Langdon trades expirings for a good player and the Pistons make a run
The Pistons have the expiring contracts of Beasley and THJ to deal as well as over $10 million in cap space, so they are set up to trade for a player in the range of $30 million if they don’t add anyone before the season.
We’ll have to wait to see how things shake out to know who that player might be, but if someone like Michael Porter Jr. becomes available, the dream scenario is that the Pistons flip their expiring contracts for a good player and make a real run at the play-in tournament.
In this dream, Detroit sneaks in as an up-and-coming team, maybe wins a game or two and gets their young players real reps in games that matter for the first time in their careers.
The Reality: It’s tank time again
The more realistic scenario is that the Pistons are already well out of it by the trade deadline and they move their veterans for second-round picks, lean into the youth again and tank away, hoping to keep their 2025 pick.
Langdon has made it clear he is going to build through the draft and player development, a refrain we’ve heard many times before, but given this is his first season, he’ll be given the leeway to be patient.
He knows the 2025 draft is a good one and he can add one more potentially elite young talent to his core before trying to make real improvement. Patience is not a word Pistons fans want to hear, but be prepared to hear it plenty in March and April of next season.
Even the “dreams” of Pistons fans are meager, as we just want a competitive team that is fun to watch and looks like they’ll be good soon, but it’s more likely we get a lighter version of that, with some improvement, but an ending that looks eerily similar to the one we’ve seen for the last half a decade.