According to one estimate, Jaden Ivey of the Detroit Pistons is only worth $10 milion per season, a number that would be a dream scenario for Detroit.
John Hollinger of The Athletic (subscription) used his BORD$ system to estimate what some of the 2022 NBA draft class might get on their next contracts.
Here is what he had to say about Jaden Ivey:
“I have a hard time seeing how the Pistons and Ivey could come to a resolution on a long-term number. The Pistons are under no long-term cap pressure and can afford to wait a year and gather more information, even if it costs them a bit if Ivey breaks out. Ivey likely has just as much incentive to push up the value of his next contract rather than settle for what would likely be MLE-ish type money on an extension. For what it’s worth, BORD$ only sees him as a $10 million value, and surely Ivey would frown at any figure in that range.”
Hollinger’s BORD$ system uses a combination of different metrics to analyze a player’s contribution and translates that into a dollar value.
I am certain the Pistons would sign that deal instantly if they thought Ivey would take $10 million per season, which would be significantly less than Isaiah Stewart got on his rookie extension.
But that’s not going to happen, which makes this a big “prove it” year for Ivey while the Pistons will be taking on risk regardless of when he eventually signs his next contract.
The Detroit Pistons are taking a risk by waiting on Jaden Ivey
Ivey would be foolish to sign a deal now when he is coming off a serious injury and had to watch his team make the playoffs without him. He has no leverage and has the talent and confidence to bet on himself.
As Hollinger said, the Pistons don’t have much motivation to get this deal done either, as Ivey would still be under some measure of control as a restricted free agent, but “costs them a bit” may be underselling the potential risk for Detroit.
We know the number isn’t $10 million, but if Ivey breaks out next season, he could command upwards of $30 million and there are contracts he can point to that justify it. Immanuel Quickley already got his deal, one that already looks bad for the Raptors.
Coby White is reportedly seeking a number in that range as well, two players that will be comparable to Ivey if he breaks out and averages over 20 a game next season.
Could the Pistons lock him into a lower number now? If so, they could potentially end up saving $10 million or more per season in future costs.
Of course, locking Ivey into a deal before he has really proven himself is also potentially a recipe for disaster, so there will be risk involved in whatever Detroit chooses to do.
For now, it seems both sides are content to be patient, which makes more sense for Ivey than it does for the Pistons.