The Pistons took a big risk when they didn't extend Jalen Duren last summer, but it could work out for them in the coming offseason. Duren has put together a great campaign this regular season, but he still has his flaws at times. Fortunately for the Pistons, they will get a chance to evaluate him in the most important situation when the playoffs roll around.
Duren's playoff performance will make or break his next deal
Even though Duren has taken a leap as a scorer and improved his defense this season, it won't matter if he can't carry over his All-Star play in the postseason. Duren could get some more opportunity to showcase his self-creation and ability to play in a starring role if Cade Cunningham has to miss extended time with his injury. But Duren putting up 30 points and 10 rebounds against tanking teams won't be enough to sway the Pistons towards a max contract.
Instead, Detroit needs to see him do the same against the best defenses in the postseason. Cade will need support to keep the Pistons offense afloat against playoff opponents. If Duren can emerge as a reliable second option and generate efficient offense on his own, he will rightfully earn a huge contract extension.
The Pistons will be looking for Duren to excel in the pick-and-roll, even when opposing defenses blitz him. He will need to be a great decision-maker balancing his scoring instinct with his inate playmaking ability when opportunities open up for teammates. The Pistons halfcourt offense could be in trouble if Duren isn't able to maintain his effectiveness against playoff defenses.
The Pistons will have leverage if Duren disappoints in the playoffs
And if Duren does underperform, the Pistons should be able to negotiate a cheaper contract extension with him. They will look to bring him back on a long-term extension regardless, but the exact value can vary depending on his performance.
Another important factor for these negotiations will also be Duren's performance against multiple playoff opponents. The Pistons have definitely been good enough to expect at least one playoff series victory. If those ambitions are acheived, they won't just get to see Duren against a low seed in the first round, but also more formidable opponents in later rounds.
The playoffs can expose players' weaknesses in the most brutal ways and prove their true value for building a championship team. That will actually end up being a benefit for the Pistons because they can get an accurate assessment of Duren's proper contract. While they might not have been able to secure him on a deal with great value last summer, they will at least be able to avoid massively overpaying him after seeing him in the playoffs.