The most consequential decision the Detroit Pistons have to make this summer is what to do with restricted free agent Jalen Duren.
The Pistons would love to keep their 22-year-old All-Star center, but his playoff performance has at least given them pause about how much to pay him. Duren won’t get the super max he is eligible for, but Detroit isn’t going to get a “team friendly” deal either, as he’ll have other suitors.
According to John Hollinger (subscription), “teams like Brooklyn and Chicago will be circling with offer sheets if the Pistons get cold feet.”
Both teams have the cap space to make an offer that might at least make the Pistons think and would put Detroit in a tough situation.
How much is too much for Jalen Duren?
If I had to guess, I’d say the Pistons will retain Duren, but it’s not going to be cheap. I agree with Hollinger that he’ll likely land in the 5 years/$200 million range, which would be more than any other team could offer on a four-year deal.
If Duren wanted a shorter deal with more annual money, a max offer sheet from the Bulls or Nets would get him there and force the Pistons into a tough decision about whether they should match.
Either way, having competitors for Duren is going to drive up the price and put the Pistons on the spot, as there is a number they are probably comfortable with and one they aren’t.
The problem is that the Pistons may not have any viable options if they don’t want to go too deep for Duren.
What is the Plan B for the Pistons if Duren doesn’t work out?
Duren is one of the top free agents on the market, so it’s not like there are a million immediate options if the Pistons were scared away by a big offer sheet.
They would most likely try to orchestrate a sign-and-trade to at least reap something from Duren, but the Pistons wouldn’t have a ton of leverage in a situation like this. Unless the team acquiring Duren had a big contract to unload, there wouldn’t be much motivation to send assets for a guy they can just sign in free agency.
It’s not all doom and gloom, as there does seem to be a genuine desire on both sides for Duren to stay in Detroit. The Pistons also have an advantage in that they can offer an extra year, so can give Duren more overall money than anyone else.
The question is where they draw the line and whether that line is a lower number than Duren might get from another team.
