The NBA's decision to punish the Clippers harshly for salary cap circumvention around Kawhi Leonard has made them an immediate lightning rod for trade proposals, since they are losing 5 future first-round picks through 2033. But that same punishment could also make the Clippers big players in free agency next summer and a contender to pry Jalen Duren away from the Pistons.
The Clippers have every reason to gamble on Duren
After the league's verdict was announced, the Clippers have practically nothing left to lose anymore. They won't be getting any cheap talent through the draft for the foreseeable future unless they make a big trade for some picks. They could offload guys like Darius Garland or Brandon Ingram for draft capital, but opposing teams will try to take advantage of their situation.
An alternative route to get full control of a talented young player without giving up anything would be offering Jalen Duren a max contract in free agency next summer. The Clippers won't be able to field anything competitive for Duren this summer, since he's already getting closer to a $40 million per season extension with the Pistons. But if Duren pivots for the qualifying offer instead, the Clippers could have a lucrative offer waiting for him in a year.
It would be a big wager by Duren that nothing happens to decrease his own value dramatically in the next year. But from the Clippers perspective, it makes total sense. Despite all the friction this summer and Duren's obvious flaws in the playoffs last season, he's still a 22-year-old center that's already made an All-Star and All-NBA team in his young career. Why shouldn't the Clippers extend him a max offer if possible?
Duren would have to take a huge bet on himself and the Clippers
Since Detroit has made it clear they aren't willing to entertain sign-and-trade offers for Duren now, the Clippers can't even offer a worthy trade package with their other players. Their only shot at Duren would rely completely on faith in Duren's willingness to take a qualifying offer. Doing so would take away hundreds of millions in immediate guaranteed money for Duren but give him full freedom next summer.
The Clippers will likely still be in the same position where a Duren max contract makes sense. But for Duren himself, he'll have to weigh the potential risk of injury in the next year as well as the cost of bad basketball. He might make more in the next 5 years if he signs to the Clippers next summer, but he won't win anything in Los Angeles.
Hopefully Duren doesn't give up a chance at titles in Detroit for more potential money in LA, but there's always a chance. Until now, the possibility seemed totally farfetched but the Clippers' desperation suddenly makes it just a little bit plausible.
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