Today is the deadline for Jalen Duren to accept the qualifying offer from the Detroit Pistons, but that is one of several options he still has at his disposal.
But Duren will have to make a decision of some kind today. Here are his options along with my prediction about how this will go down.
Jalen Duren accepts the qualifying offer
Duren could just accept the offer, which means he'd play out next season for the Pistons for $9.6 million and then become an unrestricted free agent after the season.
He'd also gain a no-trade clause that would prevent the Pistons from trading him to any team that didn't have the cap space to offer him a max deal next summer.
The Pistons would also be limited by his salary, which would be too low to get equal value in a trade. This is probably the worst case scenario for the Pistons and if it has a chance of happening, they better have a plan B in place or they risk losing Duren for nothing.
Jalen Duren takes the contract from the Pistons
Duren could accept the 5 year, $200 million fully guaranteed deal the Pistons have reportedly offered, which would probably be the best outcome at this point.
This would make Duren one of the highest paid centers in the NBA and put a ton of pressure on him to live up to it. Once Duren signs, all will be forgiven quickly if he plays well and the Pistons are winning, but if either of those things aren't happening, he'll get the blame.
Jalen Duren does neither and this drags on even more
Duren could refuse the qualifying offer, but he'd still be a restricted free agent. The Pistons would then have until October 19th to sign him or trade him.
This would buy both sides some extra time to negotiate, or if the Pistons thought the relationship was beyond repair, to find a palatable sign and trade option.
The Pistons could also push back the deadline for Duren to accept the qualifying offer, which would be another way to buy time but wouldn't change anything.
The only other option is that the Pistons sign and trade Duren today before the deadline, but that has it's own challenges. I've seen a ton of fake trades out there but few of them work financially, as Duren's outgoing salary will only count as half of his future earnings, meaning the Pistons would have to add a lot of salary to make any trade work.
Final prediction for Jalen Duren
My prediction for Duren hasn't really changed even though there have been a ton of twists in this story.
I still think Duren would be nuts to walk away from such money, and that the Pistons are in a position where losing him now would be devastating, so my final prediction is that Duren signs for slightly more than $200 million.
Duren signs for 5 years, $210 million today.
Of course, I've been saying this for a while and it hasn't happened, so I wouldn't be at all shocked if it doesn't go this way.
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