Sunday Trade Idea: Going after Amar’e Stoudemire

Every Friday (well, that’s the goal, which obviously didn’t happen this week), I’ll analyze a potential Pistons trade. It might be a rumor (like this one), a deal I completely made up blindly or one you suggest (e-mail me at [email protected] or leave a proposal in the comments).

Trade

Pistons receive:

  • Amar’e Stoudemire (21.2 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.0 blocks, 0.7 steals)
  • Jarron Collins (0.7 points, 1.8 rebounds, 0.1 assists, 0.2 blocks, 0.0 steals)
  • Suns receive:

  • Charlie Villanueva (13.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.8 blocks, 0.7 steals)
  • Kwame Brown (3.5 points, 3.5 rebounds,  0.6 assists, 0.2 blocks, 0.3 steals)
  • Chris Wilcox (4.6 points, 3.5 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.4 blocks, 0.4 steals)
  • First-round draft pick (lottery protected this year, top-10 next year, top-5 the next year and top-1 forever)

Salaries

Pistons receive:

Player 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Amar’e Stoudemire $16,378,325 $17,686,100 $0 $0 $0
Jarron Collins $1,181,803 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total $17,560,128 $17,686,100 $0 $0 $0

Suns receive:

Player 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Charlie Villanueva $6,500,000 $7,020,000 $7,540,000 $8,060,000 $8,580,000
Kwame Brown $4,100,000 $0 $0 $0 $0
Chris Wilcox $3,000,000 $3,000,000 $0 $0 $0
Total $13,600,000 $10,020,000 $7,540,000 $8,060,000 $8,580,000

Player option

Pistons’ perspective

Well, I figured it was about time I tackled the Amar’e-to-Detroit rumors. Right off the bat, let me say this: I don’t think the Pistons have what it takes to land Stoudemire. But Michael Schwartz of Valley of the Suns and I discussed a few ideas, and we think this is the most realistic option.

I think this deal would have to be a no-brainer for the Pistons. They’re essentially trading three bench players and a draft pick for a star – a young big man at that.

All of a sudden, they’d have a guards Rodney Stuckey and Ben Gordon, forwards Austin Daye and Jonas Jerebko and Stoudemire at center. That’s a young lineup full of promise to build around for the next several years.

I think a Gordon and Stoudemire could be deadly on the pick-and-roll. And Stoudemire’s inside play would create jump shots for Daye and to a degree, Jerebko and Stuckey.

There are a few drawbacks, though.

If Stoudemire opts out of his contract, he could be gone after this year. The Pistons likely wouldn’t have the cap room to sign a max free agent, but they still could get an excellent player.

If Stoudemire doesn’t opt out, the Pistons could be forced to let Ben Wallace and/or Will Bynum walk or trade someone else to stay under the luxury-tax line next season.

Detroit has very little size and would be losing a lot of it. Jarron Collins would be a stop-gap to help that problem a little. The Pistons would probably look to add a free agent center for the rest of the season, too.

And of course, if the Pistons struggle after this trade, that draft pick could end up pretty valuable.

John Hollinger also analyzed the trade in a recent column (Insider):

Detroit: Nobody is quite sure whether the Pistons are coming or going these days, but one option to think about is a trade of Charlie Villanueva for Stoudemire. That would get the Suns a younger player at a more reasonable salary and pave the way for the rebuilding process, and the Pistons could line the deal with expiring contracts (Chris Wilcox and Kwame Brown) to make the salary-cap math work. Such a deal would give Phoenix $10 million of additional wiggle room around the luxury tax and, of course, a replacement for Stoudemire.

From Detroit’s perspective, it would be taking a risk by committing to Stoudemire and adding another long-term contract to a fairly large stable of them. Richard Hamilton, Ben Gordon and Jason Maxiell all have at least two years left after this one at big numbers, and Rodney Stuckey is likely to join them because the Pistons can extend him this summer. Although there isn’t any threat that the Pistons could become a tax team, it would be a heavy salary structure for a club that’s losing big and is in the process of changing owners.

For that reason, the odds tilt heavily against such a deal taking place, but from the Phoenix perspective, it would be one of the more intriguing options.

Suns’ perspective

For each trade, I will seek the analysis of the other team’s TrueHoop Network blogger.

Michael Schwartz of Valley of the Suns:

“Although lately the Amare Stoudemire trade rumors that have interested me the most have been those involving Andre Iguodala and Philadelphia, if I were Suns GM Steve Kerr I would at least take a moment to contemplate it if Joe Dumars offered me Charlie Villanueva, Kwame Brown, Chris Wilcox and a protected first-rounder for Stoudemire.

I believe the Suns need to get a potential All-Star young stud and a big in any Amare trade. In the right deal that could be the same person, such as a Michael Beasley or Al Jefferson.

This Detroit deal would essentially involve the Suns receiving cap relief/filler and Charlie V.

There are many things I love about Villanueva, and it’s not just because I follow him on Twitter. He’s a young big who knows how to score the basketball and would play well with Nash on the offensive end (but then again, who doesn’t?). His salary ranging from $6.5 million this year to an $8.5 million player option in 2013-14 is fairly reasonable for a guy of his skill set.

On the other hand, he doesn’t even defend or rebound as well as Amare does, and that’s not tough to do for a 6-foot-11 performer.

As for the salary reasons, the Suns would be taking back nearly $3 million less in salary, which would amount to a savings of close to $6 million when factoring in luxury tax savings. Losing Brown’s expiring deal next season, the Suns would save $7-10 mil next year depending on if Wilcox picks up his $3 mil option (likely) as compared to their cap situation if Amare stays and picks up his $17.7 mil option.

That would put the Suns in the $52-55 million range if Grant Hill and Channing Frye pick up their options (or more if they decline and are re-signed for more), which means this deal would take Phoenix out of the Summer of 2010.

If Amare were to opt out and leave, this deal would add $7 or $10 mil to Phoenix’s 2010-11 cap in comparison to what it would be without him.

So in summary, the Suns would be receiving a solid player in Charlie V and a solid draft pick as well as some short-term cap relief but a 2010 cap detriment that limits Phoenix’s future flexibility.

Upon further review, I would decline this deal if I were Suns GM Steve Kerr because Villanueva is not the kind of player who would move me to get rid of Amare, especially with the Suns having won five in a row to vault into the No. 5 spot in the West.

My response

I completely agree. Stoudemire should fetch a better player than the Pistons have to offer. They could probably get better cap relief than having to take Chris Wilcox, too.

Verdict

The Pistons would say yes. The Suns would say no.

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Tags: Charlie Villanueva Chris Wilcox Kwame Brown

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