Detroit Pistons: Tanking makes little sense for the Pistons

The Detroit Pistons only have eight games left. Should they try to work their way back into the playoffs or pack it in for best draft positioning?

As a disappointing season winds down, it’s easy to want to make irrational decisions for the Detroit Pistons. Detroit fans have put up with 70+ games of little ball movement, constant lineup changes, and inconsistent effort from night to night.

The roller coaster season for the Pistons is especially disappointing because it comes on the heels of the franchise’s first playoff appearance in seven years. As a result of last year’s success, expectations were high. The young roster was expected to improve and challenge for a top six seed in the Eastern Conference, at the very least. That obviously didn’t happen.

Now, the Pistons have the eight games left in the season and are 1.5 games behind the Heat for the final playoff spot. The team has been lifeless since it finally got back to .500 a couple weeks ago. Fans are understandably frustrated. Many of those frustrations have boiled over into talk of the team tanking. That sentiment, however, is misguided.

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The most important question in any team building decision is simple: what are we trying to accomplish with this move?

If it’s decided that the team is going to tank, the answer is also simple: the goal is to get the best draft pick possible.

The problem lies in what that pick is realistically going to become, even if the team does tank.

Even if Stan Van Gundy benches several starters, the Pistons are still likely going to win at least a couple games down the stretch. Among realistic scenarios, the best case scenario is that the Pistons fall somewhere around the 9th spot in the lottery. Worst case scenario, from a tanking perspective, is that the Pistons make the playoffs and end up with the 14th or 15th pick in the draft.

Certainly, you always want to end up with the best draft pick possible. But the reality is that the difference between the 9th and 15th pick isn’t that large at all. While you most consistently find studs in the top 5 or so picks, the back-end of the lottery is often a huge crap shoot. The Pistons, if they continue their poor play, will likely miss the playoffs and finish with the 11th or 12th pick. Tanking really only gets them a couple spots higher, and the difference between those draft positions is negligible.

If the Pistons moved down from 12th to 11th, their shot at a top 3 pick would go up from 2.5% to just 2.9%. If they moved down to 10th, their shot would jump significantly. All the way up to a meager 5.1%. All in all, the upside from moving down in the lottery is grim.

If the Detroit Pistons do manage to make the playoffs, they ruin their opportunity at a small chance at a top 3 pick. Given their recent play, that probably won’t happen. But, if it does, and this (still) young team gets some additional playoff experience, it would be a positive for the team’s future.

Next: How should the Pistons evaluate the season?

If there were 20 games left in the season and the Pistons’ playoff chances looked bleak, tanking would be a very real option. With only eight games and little opportunity to change their status in the lottery, it makes much more sense to just play the season out.

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