Central Division Offseason Preview: Indiana Pacers

As we draw to the end of the 2015/16 season it is time to see what the teams in the Central Division have available to them as the draft and free agency draws near. In the first installment I will preview the Indiana Pacers options moving into the off season.

Indiana Pacers (45-37)

Guaranteed Salary: $57,482,574

Non-Guaranteed Salary: $2,030,931

Glenn Robinson III ($1,050,500)

Shayne Whittington ($980,431)

Unrestricted Free Agents: $15,686,450 (Cap Holds)

Ian Mahinmi ($7,600,000)

Jordan Hill ($4,800,000)

Solomon Hill ($2,306,019)

Ty Lawson ($980,431)

1^st Round Draft Pick: $1,301,900

20^th Pick

Total Salary: $76,501,855

Salary Cap: $92,000,000

CAP SPACE: $15,498,145

Former coach Frank Vogel didn’t spend long in the unemployment line quickly signing a four year deal with the Orlando Magic worth approximately $22 million. Only a few days prior, news broke that Nate McMillan was promoted from assistant to head coach and signed to a three-year deal.

A major reason team president Larry Bird moved on from Frank Vogel was his belief that players start to tune out coaches after three years. I do wonder what coaches like Greg Popovich (20+ years), Erik Spoelstra and Rick Carlisle (both 8+ years) think of that logic, each being successful over the long-term. Whether you agree or not with that philosophy, it’s hard to argue with the success Bird has found as a player, coach and in the front office.

Bird also believes the Pacers needed to play smaller and faster and Vogel never really bought in. The roster Bird put together for Vogel didn’t exactly fit the concept of getting up and down while firing from behind the three-point line. Both Rodney Stuckey (29.8%) and Monta Ellis (31.3%) are sub par three-point shooters. George Hill (37.6%) was the only player in the back court that can consistently hit from behind the arc.

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Bird also pushed for the move of Paul George to power forward, a move the both player and coach were hesitant to accept due to the pounding George would have to endure down low over the length of a season.

This all makes the promotion of McMillan a strange one from the perspective of Bird wanting to quicken the pace. Historically McMillan coached teams have been quite slow averaging 89 possessions per 48 minutes in Seattle and 88 possessions per 48 minutes in Portland. To put that into perspective, during the 2015/16 season Vogel was able to increase the tempo to just over 100 possessions per 48 minutes, up from just under 96 the season before. Secondly, will McMillan have more success in getting George to accept more time at power forward when they play small? You would have to think that was a topic of discussion during the interview process.

Speaking of George, he bounced back from the horrific injury to put together an impressive season leading the Pacers to the playoffs and just one win away from the second round. He is back in the conversation as a top 10 player in the league and potentially top 5 taking into account his versatility at both ends of the floor. It’s easy to forget he will only be 26 and about to enter his prime when the next season begins. He has a player option on his deal in the 2018/19 season, a deal that should age very well given the sudden jump in the salary cap expected over the next couple of seasons.

Myles Turner has shown glimpses of the potential that saw him taken with the eleventh pick in the 2015 draft. I was surprised by the lack of opportunities he saw during the first half of the year. I know there were some injuries that held him back early in the season but when he was available he only saw the court for 14 minutes per game over the first half. During the second half of the season though he saw his minutes boosted to nearly 27 minutes a game during the regular season and just over 28 minutes a game in the playoffs. I was also surprised to see his lack of attempts from behind the three-point line, only attempting 14 of them while converting just 3. He certainly showed an ability to protect the rim so if he can improve his ability to take and make shots from range he has a bright future ahead of him.

The Pacers can get to $30 million in space if they were to renounce all unrestricted free agents listed above. Solomon Hill looks all but gone after Bird declined the team option on his rookie scale contract. After a solid playoff series against the Toronto Raptors, Hill is looking at a considerable raise on the open market and because they declined the team option, the Pacers can only offer him up to $2,306,019, a number he should easily be able to triple in the first year of his new deal.

The biggest decision when it comes to their own free agents may come down to the bidding war for the services of big man Ian Mahinmi. Although the stats don’t jump off the page, he had a very consistent year particularly on the defensive end. He has worked hard to become a solid starting center in the league and will be expecting a raise this offseason, something in the $11 million range annually. I believe the Pacers will need to pick one of Mahinmi and Jordan Hill, both unrestricted free agents, with Mahinmi the clear standout.

Bird will also need to make a decision on what to do with Ty Lawson. Still only 28 and just twelve months ago was averaging 15 Points and nearly 10 Assist per game for the Denver Nuggets. His market is at an all-time low and the Pacers may have an opportunity to secure his services at a discounted rate.

The Pacers have the money to spend in free agency to go along with their mid/late first round pick. They have some assets to use on the trade market and should be able to continue their rise up the Eastern Conference standings. If Paul George does spend more time at Power Forward next season they will be in the market for players like Harrison Barnes and Nicolas Batum to fill the void at small forward. A starting lineup that includes George Hill, Monta Ellis, Batum/Barnes, Paul George and Ian Mahinmi should move them into the top four of the Eastern Conference.

Next: Likeliest point guard prospects to end up on Detroit Pistons

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