Southwest Division
New Orleans Pelicans
Record: 35-47
A season after a disappointing 30-52 campaign, the New Orleans Pelicans are poised for redemption. In my projections, they’ll improve by five games and be a bit more competitive. That said, there are questions to be answered on this roster and by this coaching staff.
Former Piston coach Alvin Gentry started his Pelicans’ tenure with high expectations and the jury is still out on just what he brings to this team. At times this roster did not resemble an NBA-level team, and there’s only so much any coach can do with that.
Anthony Davis is a superstar in the making, if he’s not already there, but he can’t create his own shot reliably and the rotating corps of backup-quality point guards he was dealing with last season couldn’t put him in positions to succeed. Tyreke Evans only played 25 games last season, and he won’t be ready to start the 2016-17 season.
Jrue Holiday played a productive 65 games last season, and his ability to stay healthy and on the floor might be the most important element to this team exceeding the 35 wins I project for them.
Dallas Mavericks
Record: 40-42
The Dallas Mavericks did what they had to do this offseason, much like they’ve been doing ever since things fell apart with DeAndre Jordan last summer. They’ve taken the moves available to them, like taking the Golden State Warriors castoffs in Andrew Bogut and Harrison Barnes.
They’re good moves, relative to what they have to deal with, but it’s not going to be enough for them to keep pace and make it back to the playoffs. Dirk Nowitzki made sure to get paid this offseason, signing a two-year $50 million contract.
It’s a subtle sign that the Mavs know they’re on the downside, and it’s alright that they are. They’ve been highly competitive for the greater part of two decades, making the playoffs in fifteen of the last sixteen seasons. Things have gone badly for them the last couple years, so Dirk can get the money he deferred and he can age semi-gracefully as his career winds down.
No playoffs this year in Dallas.
Houston Rockets
Record: 42-40
Playoffs! Points! Non-stop action!
Playoffs! Lots of points! The Rockets are fun again! https://t.co/u888B53JMz
— Duncan Smith (@DuncanSmithNBA) September 14, 2016
The Houston Rockets will be exciting and explosive with James Harden‘s union with new head coach Mike D’Antoni and the additions of guys like Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon. They might even be a touch better in spite of losing Dwight Howard to the Atlanta Hawks via free agency.
They might be better, but they won’t be able to stop anybody. D’Antoni’s Phoenix Suns in the mid-2000’s weren’t as bad on defense as they were reputed to be, but this roster isn’t built to slow teams down. The Rockets might lead the NBA in games with a total score of 250 points or more, and James Harden might lead the NBA in scoring.
I have the Rockets being the eighth seed in the Western Conference. They’ll meet certain doom in the Golden State Warriors in the first round of the playoffs.
Memphis Grizzlies
Record: 45-39
The Memphis Grizzlies put the band back together for another go around, resigning Mike Conley to a five-year $153 million contract. Yeah, Mike Conley is the highest paid player in NBA history. While that seems like a bit of a stretch, if the Grizzlies didn’t bring him back, they would be resigned to the lottery for the foreseeable future.
They also brought Chandler Parsons into the fold. Parsons signed a four-year $94 million contract with the Grizzlies. He hasn’t played more than 66 games in a season since 2013-14 and has never played more than 76 games, so health is a concern for him.
The Grizzlies are an aging team with injury concerns, so if a key player goes down for any sustained period (much like all of them did for portions of last season) this prediction of 45 wins could be generous indeed.
San Antonio Spurs
Record: 55-27
The San Antonio Spurs are the clear choice for the second best team in the Western Conference behind the Golden State Warriors. The Spurs will be looking to follow up a 67 win campaign last season.
The Spurs had one of the most dominant seasons in NBA history last season and it will largely be forgotten thanks to the existence of the Golden State Warriors. San Antonio is still a threat in the West, but the Warriors are going to be simply too overwhelming.
The Spurs lost Tim Duncan to retirement, but added Pau Gasol via free agency. Considering Duncan struggled to contribute on the floor last season, Gasol is a clear upgrade.
Next: Pacific Division