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NBA Math ranks the Pistons’ roster in their Crystal Ball series

By Duncan Smith

AUBURN HILLS, MI - JULY 26: Detroit Pistons introduce two new uniforms by Nike on July 26, 2017 at the Palace Of Auburn Hills in Auburn Hills, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images)
AUBURN HILLS, MI - JULY 26: Detroit Pistons introduce two new uniforms by Nike on July 26, 2017 at the Palace Of Auburn Hills in Auburn Hills, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The NBA Math site ranked the Detroit Pistons’ roster from top to bottom, grading their value relative to the rest of the league.

We’ve become big fans of NBA Math and their Total Points Added metric, among other things. Their team-by-team statistical breakdowns are some of the best you’ll find available to the public, and their Crystal Ball preview series entry on the Detroit Pistons caught our eye.

They evaluated each player on the roster using a panel of their 16 contributors, ranking them numerically with the following criteria:

  1. Shouldn’t Get Minutes
  2. End-of-Bench Pieces
  3. Depth Pieces
  4. High-End Backups
  5. Low-End Starters
  6. Solid Starters
  7. High-End Starters, Non-All-Stars
  8. All-Star Candidates
  9. All-NBA Candidates, Non-MVP Candidates
  10. Lesser MVP Candidates
  11. MVP Frontrunners
  12. Best Player in the League (only one player could earn this grade on each ballot)

Coming off a disappointing season, no player on the roster ranked higher than 6.63 in the aggregate, although Avery Bradley received one 8 and Andre Drummond received several such All-Star candidate votes.

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While the lower bench players play out about as you’d expect with Eric Moreland, Henry Ellenson, Reggie Bullock and Anthony Tolliver all being in the 1-through-3 range, they did spend some time focusing on the steps Bullock has taken on the defensive end.

"With a combination of strength and quickness, he was able to switch onto a variety of different positions and thrived when left alone to guard an isolation set. Screens could throw him off, but his work away from the primary action improved in his second full season with the Pistons, to the point that he swung from minus-1.98 in ESPN.com’s defensive real plus/minus for 2015-16 to 0.57 in 2016-17."

In the next tier up, Boban Marjanovic found himself with a grading of 3. We know about his gifted offensive skills, but what fewer people are aware of is that he was impressive around the rim defensively. He allowed just 39.7 percent shooting at the rim, but he was vulnerable to mobile opponents in space, so there’s a give and take on the defensive end for Marjanovich.

Luke Kennard got a ranking of 3.13, with one panelist ranking him as high as 6. His offensive skills graded out well among the NBA Math staff.

Once we get to the top five players, things got a bit more interesting. Stanley Johnson ranked fifth with a rating of 3.69, thanks entirely to his defense and physicality. One panelist gave him a rank of 5, but the rest of the staff gave him a 3.

Reggie Jackson ranked fourth with a rating of 5, and the spread among the panelists was wide. He received grades everywhere from 4 to 7.

Tobias Harris came in third with 5.88, and he received multiple votes of both 5 and 7. NBA Math’s staff and we at Piston Powered are of a similar mind on Harris:

"In previous eras, Harris would have been viewed as a “tweener” and written off. Now, he’s showcasing his value to the Pistons in so many different ways, helping increase their net rating by 2.4 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor. Detroit just needs to recognize that he was the team’s best player last year and act accordingly, upping his usage rate and making him a mainstay in an opening quintet that desperately needs an infusion of high-quality offense."

Next up is Avery Bradley, rated 6.25 with a single ranking of 8 and several 5, thanks to the fact that he is probably both the best shooter and best defender on the Detroit Pistons’ roster.

Finally, Andre Drummond finished first, thanks to the obvious physical strengths. NBA Math’s staff sums up the good and bad that Drummond brings to the table:

"If you look at Drummond’s game in comparison to the level he should be at by now, he’s nowhere near those prior expectations. But if you look solely at his actual value, it’s hard to complain too much about a 24-year-old playing at this level."

Next: Tobias Harris speaks about Reggie Jackson's rehab

We’ve been critical of much of the media commentary aimed at the Detroit Pistons so far this summer, but NBA Math comes through once again with an accurate assessment of the roster and what the outlooks for each player may end up looking like in the coming season.

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