What is absolute worst case scenario for Detroit Pistons?

3. Detroit Pistons go all-in on free agency, you know what happens

The Detroit Pistons have a long tradition of overpaying for free agents. If there is a mediocre player out there, count on Detroit to offer them piles of money. Dare we bring up the name Jon Leuer?  (We prefer not to).

The 2021 free agent class is thought to be weak, which means, if the Pistons target certain players, their price might be higher than normal due to much worse alternatives.

General manager Troy Weaver has said the team basically plans to run it back with who they ended the season with, but there will be a few spots open.

Due to paying for the the final year of Blake Griffin’s contract, the Pistons have little cap space this upcoming season, but they have gobs of salary cap room after that. Any free agent contract would have to be structured for a small salary the first year, with massive increases after that.

In the unrestricted free agent class, the biggest names are point guards Mike Conley of the Utah Jazz and Kyle Lowry of the Toronto Raptors.

Could Detroit use a high-level, experienced point guard? Sure. But Conley and Lowry will be very expensive, each demanding, most likely, in the $60-70 million for three years range. If either were signed, a lot of Detroit’s future cap space would be eaten up.

Hey, Reggie Jackson, Andre Drummond and Reggie Bullock are all free agents. Maybe Weaver wants to reconstruct the 2016 Pistons? (Just kidding).

Seriously, since Detroit is (not yet) a prime destination for free agents, there might have to be some overpay involved to lure players.

Reasonable additions would be scoring wing Alec Burks, point guard T.J. McConnell and power forward Trey Lyles.

Since Detroit can not pay a lot this season, all the contracts will have to be back-loaded.

In the free agent frenzy that occurs every year, what if Detroit pulls out all the stops to get these three, and vastly overpays. Let’s say three years, $30 million for Lyles, four years, $45 million for Burks and three years, $27 million to McConnell.

Assuming all contracts have little money for the 2021-22 season, that means most of it comes due in the following years, swallowing up a lot of Detroit’s extra cap space.

Do not forget the Detroit Pistons have their own free agents

The Pistons could also overpay for their own players who became free agents. If Troy Weaver truly wants most of the team back, it may cost them, particularly in a weak market.

Hamiduo Diallo is a restricted free agent and should get some nice offers. If a team decided to ‘poison pill’ the Pistons, with an offer they will struggle to match, it could really affect their future cap space.

Frank Jackson and Saben Lee both played well at the end of the season for Detroit. The Pistons probably want them to return, but the price will be a lot higher than the two-way contracts they were on this past year. It would also make a lot of sense to ink Lee to a long-term deal. If he continues to develop, Lee could turn into a major rotational piece.

Chance of Worst Case: 20-percent. Detroit could go big on Diallo, who they got from the Thunder at the trade deadline. But Weaver has been prudent so far in spending during his tenure. Unless some name becomes bargain basement, Detroit will mostly sit out free agency, except for its own players.