Pistons lottery odds: Detroit is due for some more luck

Following a heartbreaking (but maybe not so bad) last second loss to the Thunder on Wednesday night, the Detroit Pistons hold a 16-60 record with six games remaining in the season.

As it currently stands, the Pistons hold the worst record in the league by 1.5 games over the Rockets and are a full three games behind the Spurs.

We don’t need to go over it again, but quick season recap would be – Detroit has been unofficially tanking since Cade Cunningham went down with injury.

There is a generational talent (or basketball god) at the top of the draft that needs no introduction – Victor Wembamyama.

For fans of the Pistons, this has largely been a discouraging year. There was excitement coming into this season that this may be the year we turn the corner, but we quickly realized that the return of the teal jerseys might be the only corner Detroit would be turning.

There was the divisive Saddiq Bey trade, ongoing arguments about Dwane Casey’s fit with the team, and even a Killian Hayes brawl that had NBA twitter buzzing.

In true Pistons’ fashion under Troy Weaver’s leadership, the Detroit has managed to lose as many games as possible all while keeping things interesting and encouraging enough for fans to hold on to hope.

In a valiant attempt at injecting some positivity into this fanbase, I’m going to try something today. I’m going to boldly say that the Detroit Pistons are due. Due for what you might ask?

Detroit is due for the ping-pong balls to bounce our way…again.

Detroit Pistons lottery odds: It’s time for more luck

My bullet-proof reasoning behind this is actually somewhat scientific. It all comes down the law of averages.

If you look back through how the Detroit Pistons have fared in the NBA Draft lottery, you will not be surprised to see that the franchise has only moved up once in the draft order in 13 opportunities.

That one time being the lottery that won the Pistons the right to draft Cade Cunningham.

This does not include the 2003 draft lottery where the Pistons owned the Grizzlies’ pick that was first pick protected. The pick moved all the way up to number two. We all know who the Pistons selected and how that story goes.

But for the purpose of this narrative, the Pistons have only moved up once since the lottery started in 1985.

For reference, the San Antonio Spurs have seen their draft position increase nearly every year they have been in the lottery.

Breaking it down even more, the Pistons have dropped at least one draft position slot six times and have stayed the same six times.

Since that 1985 season, the team has only selected in the top-5 of the draft four times, two of which were the last two seasons.

Stringing together three straight top-5 picks would be huge for this rebuild, and as the odds currently stand the Pistons cannot drop below the five spot.

In the moment it may be a discouraging time for Pistons fans, but this is exactly what we wanted when we threw away the “win-now” mentality and trusted Troy Weaver with the rebuild.

We may question a couple of the signings, the 17 centers it feels like are on the roster, and maybe even the Saddiq Bey trade, but Weaver has netted the Pistons a great young core and plenty of draft capital in his short time as GM.

Potentially none more valuable than the asset consuming our every thought at the moment – the best odds in this season’s lottery.

The current breakdown for the Detroit Pistons is:

14% for the 1st pick

13.4% for the 2nd pick

12.7% for the 3rd pick,

12.0% for the 4th pick

47.9% for the 5th pick

Just a quick glance at these chances and the 5th pick odds may jump out to you. That’s an almost 50/50 shot at getting the 5th pick, something that would devastating for Detroit.

But right now, I’m choosing to look at this glass half full. A 14 percent chance at a generational prospect is something that we should not take lightly, and if those ping-pong balls bounce our way again, this will all be worth it.

There are also two other prospects worth getting excited about – Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller, but they would feel like consolation prizes compared to Victor.

If history tells us anything it’s that the Pistons will fall in lottery and city of Detroit will once again feel heartbreak, but that hurts to type.

We need to put some positivity into the ether.

Right now it’s okay to dream. We are 60 losses deep and haven’t won a playoff game since 2008.

The Pistons are due for one. The city of Detroit is due for one.