NBA teams are being increasingly careful with the contracts they give to non-All-Stars, and we saw it this offseason in restricted free agency, something you’d think would work in the favor of the Detroit Pistons when it comes to Jalen Duren’s extension.
None of the restricted free agents this offseason got the money they wanted, and only Josh Giddey (4 years/$100 million) got anywhere close. Both Cam Thomas and Quentin Grimes took qualifying offers and Jonathan Kuminga essentially had to settle for a two-year deal in which only the first year is guaranteed.
The new CBA has given teams pause that wouldn’t have been there in the past, when rookie extensions were practically a given.
Next summer could be different according to Jake Fischer, who thinks there could be more teams with cap space, which could lead to big offer sheets for Duren if the Pistons aren’t able to extend him before the October 20th deadline:
“I think both Daniels and Duren, as restricted free agents, could quite easily command offer sheets at that $30 million-per-season level if we see at least three teams with the cap space to make such offers in the 2026 offseason.”
So even though restricted free agency has slowed in recent years, Duren could be one of the players to crack into the $30 million range that players this offseason weren’t able to get.
Does that mean the Pistons should just give in and pay him now? Not so fast.
Jalen Duren extension: The Pistons can’t outbid themselves
Jalen Duren may very well end up commanding $30 million a year, and if that is the case, the Pistons should be happy to pay it, as it will mean that Duren improved and showed he is one of the top centers in the NBA.
But he’s not proven that yet, so there is no reason to give him what will be the ceiling for his next paycheck ahead of time.
I’m on record many times as saying Duren is the one who will get an extension (if anyone does), as he is a safe bet given his age and skillset.
I’ve also written about what I’d be comfortable giving him, and that is well shy of $30 million a season. If the Pistons could get a deal done in the $22 million per season range, it would be far better for their long-term cap health.
Duren would likely bet on himself in that scenario and the Pistons should let him. There may be more offers sheets next summer, but are there really going to be multiple teams chasing Duren? I’m dubious.
Also, the cap space that’s projected now could be long gone by then, so the Pistons may realistically be the only team in the mix, in which case there is no need to bid against themselves right now.
It’s a tough call given that there is some risk involved with letting this play out, but the Pistons have also seen what happens when you bet on a player early and it doesn’t work out.