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Jalen Duren contract predictions show the Pistons' $100 million conundrum

NBA execs weighed in on how much to pay Duren
May 13, 2026; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Pistons head coach J.B. Bickerstaff talks to center Jalen Duren (0) in the second half against the Cleveland Cavaliers during game five of the second round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
May 13, 2026; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Pistons head coach J.B. Bickerstaff talks to center Jalen Duren (0) in the second half against the Cleveland Cavaliers during game five of the second round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In case you've been hiding somewhere without Internet, Jalen Duren and the Detroit Pistons still have not agreed on a new contract for the All-NBA center.

It seems like the negotiations have turned into a test of will and ego, as there isn't any logical reason to drag this out when both sides ultimately want the same outcome.

The report that this drama could leak into late August hasn't helped ease the anxiety of Pistons fans who just want this deal done so the team can finish their offseason on a high note.

The Pistons and Duren are reportedly far apart on a number, as Duren wants near the super-max he is eligible for and the Pistons want to pay him like Walker Kessler. They aren't the only ones who are far apart on the number, as a recent poll of executives show there is wild disagreement on how much Jalen Duren is worth.

How much should Jalen Duren get on his next deal

In a recent article in The Athletic (subsciption), Fred Katz asked a group of anonymous executives how much they would pay Duren, and their answers were telling and show the huge gap in how players are viewed.

One executive went up to 5 years/$230 million, which was the highest, while the lowest said 4 years/$120 million should get the deal done. That's over $100 million of disagreement there, which shows just how big this gulf is.

Most were using markers like the 25 percent max and Kessler's new contract to gauge a deal for Duren, but even with that, there was nowhere near a consensus, which shows how attitudes around centers are changing.

Not everyone cares about the big man these days

There is one school of thought in NBA circles when it comes to centers, which is that you should either have a guy who is an MVP candidate (Jokic) or fill the position with role players who are on minimum deals.

This max/min strategy makes some sense, as it seems dumb to pay centers big bucks if they aren't moving the needle, and there is no shortage of big men out there. The Celtics went with this approach last season, going with a committee of centers with no one making big money.

Looking at the Duren situation though this lens makes it difficult to justify paying him, as he's not one of the league's best centers even though he did make All-NBA last season. But he's way better than a minimum guy, so one of the things the league is going to have to figure out is what to do with players like Duren, who are eligible for far more money than they are probably worth.

The current CBA makes a bad max contract very painful, so teams are likely going to go to war with players like Duren, who doesn't fit into an easy category when it comes to future salary.

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