Jalen Duren started the season on a heater, but has cooled down recently. In the last month, he's looked like a solid part of the Pistons' deep rotation rather than standing out as a star in his own right. The variance in his play could easily lead to some contract disputes between Duren and the Pistons front office next summer.
Can Jalen Duren establish himself as a star?
Make no mistake about it; Duren is having a career season either way. He's holding steady at 18 points and 11 rebounds per game while showing huge improvements in self-creation and defense. And he's still a bargain for the Pistons. He's making just $6.4 million this season on the last year of his rookie deal.
But Duren is rapidly approaching restricted free agency next season and there will be a market for him around the league. Duren is a strong contender to make his first All-Star team this season considering the Pistons' standing atop the Eastern Conference. With that considered, other teams will likely be willing to offer him a big deal for over $30 million per season.
Since Duren will be a restricted free agent, the Pistons will have the right to match any offer made to him. But a hefty price tag for his services would definitely restrict their team-building efforts elsewhere. This season, they were able to make up for their departures from last season using their financial flexibility.
If the Pistons don't have the same level of flexibility because they're paying Duren (and possibly Jaden Ivey as well) a lot more money, it'll make the front office's job a lot harder. They'll be reliant on players like Duren, Ivey and franchise cornerstone Cade Cunningham to live up to and even exceed their expensive contracts. Additionally, the Pistons will need to find even more bargain contracts for contributing veterans.
Jalen Duren can silence all these concerns by proving himself worthy of a huge contract. He looked the part in his first dozen games when he was averaging over 20 points per game. He was dominating weaker teams and holding steady against stronger ones while tightening up his weaknesses.
But Duren's weaknesses have popped up again over the last month. During that span, in 12 games, he's down to just 15 points and 10 rebounds per game. He's also had some high turnover games as opposing defenses swarm him on the catch. Duren will need to improve his ball security and decision making to take the next leap and prove his value.
As the rest of the season plays out, a key question for the Pistons and the rest of the NBA will be: Which version of Jalen Duren will we see in coming years?