Even though we are creeping towards the end of September and Jalen Duren is still not signed, I am still running under the assumption that he’ll eventually ink a deal with the Detroit Pistons.
There’s just too much at stake for both sides, as Duren would be passing up guaranteed generational wealth with little to gain from it, and the Pistons would be stuck without a center less than a month before preseason.
I am still predicting that Duren will get 5 years and at least $190 million from the Pistons (195 is my final guess), but the total years and amount may not be as important as when he gets the money.
The Pistons should front load Jalen Duren’s contract to protect themselves
The Pistons should try to pay Duren as much of his contract as possible in the first couple of years as a way of safeguarding themselves against the future.
Obviously, signing Duren to a deal in the $200 million range is going to be risky, there is no way to mitigate that completely. Even though he’s only 22, there’s always a chance he’s hit his peak, regresses or gets hurt, so every contract is a gamble.
The Pistons can lessen that risk by front loading his contract so that his deal descends as it goes. This will give Detroit more wiggle room for what is coming.
The Pistons have to think of Cade Cunningham and future trades
If Duren gets a five-year deal, it will overlap with Cunningham’s next contract, which could be problematic.
Cunningham is almost certain to get a supermax deal that will pay him upwards of $60-70 million a year, which is going to make juggling the rest of the payroll even trickier.
If they can get Duren on a descending deal, then their responsibilities towards him will actually get lower just as Cade’s go up.
It would make Duren a far more attractive trade option if the Pistons eventually had to deal him, as he’d get cheaper as he goes.
A perfect example of how this could protect the Pistons is Kyle Kuzma, who signed a 4-year deal worth $90 million that immediately looked suspect. The thing is, it actually goes down every year, so the Wizards were still able to trade him, as the really ugly years of his deal had already been paid.
What looked like a bad contract at the time (and still does) isn’t nearly as daunting when Kuzma is making $20 million next season, which is only 12 percent of the salary cap as opposed to 18 percent, which it was at the start of the deal.
Even though Kuzma isn’t even very good, the Bucks will still likely be able to trade him at some point.
Things aren’t as dire with Duren, who will hopefully improve over the course of his next deal, but if they can get him on a declining, front loaded contract, it will mitigate the future risk of Cade’s supermax and make Duren easier to trade if necessary.
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