The Detroit Pistons have had a relatively quiet offseason, so most of the discussion has revolved around possible extensions for Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren. Many believe Duren is the more likely of the two to get an extension, but one recent prediction is higher than I expect the Pistons to go.
Bleacher Report predicted that Duren would get 5 years/$140 million, which would be near the ceiling of what I expect the Pistons to offer their young center.
I am on the record several times as saying Detroit may as well cut a deal with Duren now if the price is right, but that’s where the debate starts.
How to you value a player that has very serious and clear limitations on both ends?
And how does Duren’s age factor in, as he’s still 21 for another month or so and has shown he’s at least a very good rebounder who has nice chemistry with Cade Cunningham. The Pistons seem committed to Duren as their center of the future, and this contract would back that up.
When you look at what some other centers around the league are making, it’s hard to argue against Duren getting at least the same.
Jalen Duren vs. His peers
The contract B/R suggested would be a $28 million annual salary, which would put Duren on part with Isaiah Hartenstein, who put up similar numbers last season but in far fewer games.
The difference is that Hartenstein only got three years, and the last year is a team option, so OKC was comfortable giving him the larger annual salary in exchange for a shorter deal.
The next tier of centers salary wise all make $25 million a season and that includes John Collins (not really a center), Draymond Green, Deandre Ayton, Nic Claxton and Myles Turner.
It's debatable whether Duren is better than any of these guys, but he’s certainly younger and could improve greatly throughout the course of five seasons, whereas most of these guys are veterans at the end of their primes or out of it.
If you compare Duren to these players, it seems fair he should make the same.
But here’s the rub: Other than Draymond and maybe Turner, are any of these teams happy paying these guys this much for what they provide? OKC just won a title with Hartenstein, so they are happy and are only locked into one more season.
Ayton just got a two-year/$16 million mid-level deal from the Lakers, so that shows you what they think he’s worth. The Nets would likely rip up Claxton’s contract if they could, so the Pistons should look at recent history to guide them.
Another thing to consider is that the salary cap will go up, so Duren’s deal will represent less of the cap each year, which works in his favor.
The Pistons need to play hardball here and try to get that overall number down a bit unless they can front-load it and work in a team option or two, but there is a solid argument that Duren is going to get that money.
In the end, I don’t think it will be $140, but it’s going to be higher than 100, it’s just about how much for the Pistons.